This is not good news for McCain or the Republicans. I think that the article is correct, in that historical patterns strongly favor the Democrats and Obama. However, that does not account for the fact that Obama is the least experienced and qualified candidate to be President, ever. Based on that fact, I like this scenario much better. On the other hand, for my preferred scenario to work, the American voters must choose wisely and rationally, something on which one would not want to place too high a wager. Even under this scenario, by the way, I am less than thrilled. The winner would be McCain. My wish is that the somewhat better ideas and philosophy of the, one hopes, politically chastened, Republicans will triumph. Even that wish may be excessively optimistic.
Here is another alternative scenario that also favors Obama, at least on paper. I am less impressed by that one, as it simply seems to explain the usual to-and-fro between the in-party and the out-party, as voters tire of one and then the other. This version does not explain the more fundamental realignment elections, where one party’s broad political philosophy and program become the dominant framework of ideas and action. This election may well be part of the normal change, without working a fundamental alteration. If Obama’s mantra of hope and change is as vapid in practice as in rhetoric, people will eventually get bored, and nothing much will have been altered. On the other hand, Obama’s fundamentally leftist leanings and associations may mark a more significant shift. Either way, the people will eventually get Obama-fatigue and remember why they voted Republican before, but by then the terms of our “social contract” will have been directed away from individual freedom and choice in ways that will be difficult to repeal.
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