Much good political polling news for Republicans

When Nancy Pelosi called the election on November 3 a great victory for Democrats to the amusement even of the assembled media employees, she obviously could not have been talking about the lopsided losses of the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey. She must have been talking about that great Democratic victory in the Congressional district in California. Oh wait, that District is a solidly Democratic gerrymandered jurisdiction. As Ed Morrissey explains, “In California, the state’s lieutenant governor only got a 10-point win in a district that had elected Democrats with at least 63% of the vote in four straight elections, against a Republican so unknown that the Democrats actually quoted a different David Harmer by mistake in one of their ads.”

So Madame Speaker must have been talking about that great Democratic victory in the 23rd District of New York, where Democrat Bill Owens edged out the Conservative Party and Republican Party candidates in a district that President Obama carried by 5% and which has only a nominal GOP edge of 1%.

Or did he? Election snafus in the two counties that were Owens’s opponent Doug Hoffman’s stronghold meant that his vote was undercounted. It now appears that the 10,000 absentee ballots will decide the race. Owens is still ahead by 3,000 votes, and Hoffman is unlikely to win, but the race is now in play.

While much can happen in a year, Madame Pelosi’s Democrats may have more of her kind of victory come the next election. Veteran political pollster and analyst Charlie Cook’s Political Report as dissected by Moe Lane at Red State has some ominous numbers for the Democrats. What is even more ominous is that Cook is an old Democratic pollsters and his numbers tend to shade Democratic. As Lane explains, the Democrats are looking at a loss between 31 and 48 seats. Before the election, I pegged Democratic House losses in 2010 at 20-30, but the continuing self-immolation of Democrats on domestic and foreign policy and the surprising scope of the Democrats’ losses in the election a week ago (which extended to many, many local offices, as well), leads me to believe that a 30-40 seat loss is not out of the question.

There are a couple of variables here. The administration could get lucky over the next year with the economy and with agreements abroad. They could get smart and have Obama act like a President instead of, alternately, a perpetual campaigner and a small-time Chicago pol. They could be successful in passing their domestic programs and getting that rancor off the front pages. More likely, however, is that the bad news will outweigh the good. Unemployment is not likely to decrease significantly. The issue of what to do about the Bush tax cuts, expected to expire after 2010, will come up as a campaign issue, and even a temporary stay until 2011 will not remove it completely from the political arena. With Obama/PelosiCare, cap-and-tax, the continuing huge deficit and debt projections, and tax hikes on the agenda, the President’s promised strategy of “nationalizing” the 2010 election is more likely to backfire than to be successful. Indeed, the very concept of “nationalizing” yet one more facet of American life may be just the wrong descriptive theme.

Another variable is the unfortunate, yet impressive, capacity of the Republican Party’s leadership, from RNC chairman Michael Steele to the various Congressional, Senatorial, and other campaign leaders, to snatch political defeat from the jaws of victory. Watching the Republican leadership organize campaigns and recruit candidates too often partakes of the morbid fascination of observing a car wreck.

Leaving those variables and the lengthy lead time to the side, I am still skeptical about a 48-seat swing, but, if exceptional candidates are recruited and the Democrats continue on their current path of political insanity, it is not out of the question. After all, Democrats represent 80 districts that were carried either by John McCain in 2008 or by George W. Bush in 2004. The Republicans only need a net gain of 41, I believe. Their best allies in that quest are the Democrats, led by Nancy Pelosi (“It’s fair to send people to jail who won’t buy health insurance under the new plan.”) The GOP campaign ads just write themselves.

Not to pile on—oh, why not?—here are some recent poll results. Obama and the Democrats are hemorrhaging support in Ohio, a state they had turned from the Republicans in 2006 and 2008. In particular, as has been shown in many other polls and happened in the recent elections, independents are turning away from the Democrats in droves. Andrew Malcolm of the L.A. Times blog analyzes the dismal figures for Obama and the Democrats coming from the Gallup poll. For the first time in a long while, the generic preference poll finds that more registered voters want a Republican than a Democrat in Congress. Among independents there is a 52-30 preference for Republicans. Meanwhile, Obama’s general job approval rating heads south. His approval on specific policies such as health care is even worse. Overall, his strong approval rating is eclipsed by 10% in his strong disapproval rating.

Karl at HotAir provides further analysis of that Gallup poll and a similar Pew poll. He notes from the details of the Gallup poll that the superficial preference difference of 4% actually understates the Republican lead. For one thing, Republicans tend to do better among likely and actual voters than among merely those that are registered, especially in midterm elections. Moreover, at least for now, Republicans are more enthusiastic than are Democrats, which can further affect voter turnout. And the unemployment figures may go considerably higher and peak close to the election.

In other polls, Senator Harry Reid is in deep political trouble in Nevada, despite (or because of) Obama’s help, and is losing in polls against either of two potential GOP challengers. Veteran Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd is trailing his likely Republican challenger by 11%. His approval rating is actually getting worse, and his disapproval rating is reaching towards 60%. In Delaware, where Joe Biden got the governor to appoint a seat warmer so that the seat could be turned over to Biden’s son in 2010, the very popular Republican House member and former governor Mike Castle will be the nominee and is ahead of Biden fils.

Nor is the Gallup poll an aberration. Other polls have shown voters, especially independents, trending towards the GOP and away from the Democrats since spring. There have been various polls showing Republicans ahead of Democrats in generic preference polls among likely voters at several other times over the past six months. So, the trend is solid and continuing.