The G.O.P. V.P. Derby

As rumors fly that John McCain will soon announce his choice for vice-president, I will have a go at some predictions and evaluations. In light of McCain’s comparatively advanced age, his selection for V.P. will be more closely scrutinized than normal.

Senator Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.)—a daring choice. Emphasizes McCain’s “independent” streak and ability to work “across the aisle.” Might appeal to disaffected moderate Democrats, especially Jews, put off by the Obamessiah’s leftist roots. Could help in potentially close states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, N.H., Connecticut, and Florida. Personally is a nice and decent guy, so can balance McCain’s grenade-with-firing-pin-pulled image. He and McCain are good friends and political allies. Downside: Joe is a liberal hawk. Might turn off an already highly skeptical base; think “McCain-Lieberman Global Warming Bill.” Adds nothing in regards to domestic policy (McCain’s weaker side). Provides no executive experience. Having two Senators on ticket hasn’t worked often, and not at all since Kennedy-Johnson. Also adds no buzz and probably registers lower than McCain on the Excite-o-meter. Two Older White Guys is probably not the best way to go.

Governor Charlie Crist (R-Fla.) Close McCain associate. Helped McCain campaign immensely with his support at a crucial time in the primaries. Popular in Florida and can lock up a potentially close state. Adds “executive experience” to the ticket. He and McCain like each other and are politically in sync. Downside: McCain will probably win Florida anyway with Crist campaigning for him. While Crist is a decent speaker, he’s still not going to get the girls fainting like Obama. Not as conservative as his popular predecessor, Jeb Bush, so won’t be a big draw for them (but not a turn-off, either). While distinguished-looking, he also looks too much like McCain. See the Two Older White Guys comment, above.

Governor Tom Ridge (R-Pa.) Bland choice. Popular governor in his state, so could make Pennsylvania a battleground. As former Homeland Security Secretary, has important executive experience. Downside: Ridge’s pro-abortion stance will do nothing to allay concerns of social conservatives that McCain is not really their man at heart. Ridge is not a scintillating speaker and looks like a typical pol. See the Two Older White Guys comment, above.

Governor Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.) The Huckster was openly competing for this position when he and McCain tag-teamed Romney in the primaries, and when he continued to run even after McCain was on the expressway to the nomination. Might help McCain with certain social conservatives. Has a network of supporters and contributors. Adds executive experience (though being governor of Arkansas may not be seen as an overwhelmingly positive attribute by Republicans). Pretty good speaker, especially off-the-cuff (unlike a certain Teleprompter orator on the other side). Enough musical hipness to impress the ladies at the meeting hall, though not enough to get Obamagirl to switch her infatuation. Downside: McCain will win the South anyway. When Huck kept running, after a while the McCain camp thought that the joke was overdone. It’s not clear that McCain is over his irritation. Huck may help with the social conservatives, but the whiff of economic “Christian socialism” that emanates from some of his speeches makes him a dicey choice for the economic conservatives that McCain largely has in his corner. Also will not sit well with a large Republican constituency that is annoyed at his innuendos about Romney’s religion during the primaries. Did I mention the problem of Two Older White Guys?

Governor Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) Telegenic, brilliant, economic success story. Brings wealth and plenty of donors. Brings great executive experience that would help the ticket, as well as economic expertise to shore up McCain’s weakness there. Has shown ability to work across the aisle, but stand his ground, if necessary. Seen as a class act who can smooth some of the “rougher edges” of McCain’s public persona. Pretty good, though not great, speaker. If the measure of qualification for V.P. is whether one could see him as President, no candidate fits that better than Romney. Could help make Michigan close (if McCain stops going there and antagonizing the auto workers with his speeches). Could help McCain eke out a win in Utah. Just kidding on that last one. If Obama and McCain switched parties, but kept their same views, Obama would win in a landslide in Utah, the most Republican state in the Union. Downside: Story has it that McCain detests him viscerally. Now, that didn’t stop Kennedy from picking Johnson, but the dynamics of the 1960 Dem nomination contest and convention were different from the GOP race this year. Also, his religion is going to turn off some of the Huckabee true-believers. McCain cannot afford to alienate the religious conservatives, who are already quite suspicious of him after having had a friend in George W. A fevered chunk of them seems to think that a Mormon anywhere near the White House will deliver the country into the hands of the Antichrist. Other problems: Won’t create a buzz. His name (”Mitt”?!?!). With a son named “Tagg”? What’s next? A couple of kids named “You’re” and “Out”? Still, a safe bet in some ways and would probably take the gig because of the exposure ahead of the 2012 campaign, if McCain loses or decides not to run for reelection. But more likely a Cabinet Secretary, perhaps in Treasury or Commerce.

Governor Bobby Jindal (R-La.) OK, I like this guy. Young, experienced (several terms in the House of Representatives), popular (well, who wouldn’t be after the disastrous Governor Kathleen Blanco of Katrina incompetence infamy), telegenic, intelligent, pretty good speaker. Would bring great economic credentials. Solidifies Louisiana (though I think McCain will win there handily, anyway). Would bring buzz because of his youth, his American success story, and his ethnicity (parents are from India). Downside: His youth (he’s 36) is going to contrast awkwardly with the twice-as-old McCain. Since people vote for the presidential nominee, this could hurt McCain compared to Obama. Also was elected only recently as governor, so his executive experience is not that helpful (though it is more than Obama can offer). He may also want to finish his term as governor and then shoot for 2012 or 2016 (or anything up to 2040).

Governor Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) Let me get this out there: she is my favorite. Photogenic (I enjoyed her on the cover of Vogue), decent speaker, very popular, has the all-American career mom/soccer mom appeal (5 kids—one in the Army, one with Downs’ Syndrome). Solid conservative, but not rabidly ideological. Now, think of Hillary (I know, me, too, but try anyway); then think of the opposite of everything you know about Hillary and you have Governor Palin. Downside: Too perfect. Will make the buzz about her, not McCain. Almost as with Bobby Jindal, her comparative youth (age 44) and her good looks will remind voters of McCain’s age. A bit short on high-level executive experience (but, again, more than Obama has). Won’t help McCain win any significant state. Alaska only has three electoral votes (though Gore would have loved to have had those in 2000) and is one of the most Republican states in the Union. She may also want to finish her term as governor. Her family obligations, especially towards her Downs’ Syndrome baby, may deter her from taking the V.P. spot.

Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn.) Comparatiely youthful, experienced, popular, vigorous campaigner, savvy politician. CO-CHAIRMAN of McCain’s presidential campaign. Has shown he can reach across the aisle, yet hold his own in a state that has Al Franken (!) as the likely Democratic nominee for Senator. Good executive experience to balance McCain’s foreign policy strengths. Moderately conservative, as much as likely is possible in Minnesota. Solid on taxes, which will solidify economic conservative support. Former Catholic, who converted to evangelical Protestantism. May be a net gain for McCain among religious conservatives. Geographic balance. Could help McCain make Minnesota close and even tip it (though in 2008 that’s an uphill battle). It’s a state that some GOP optimists see as turning purple. Can also help McCain more broadly in neighboring states such as Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and with ethnic voters in general (Pawlenty is of Polish/German background). And, guess what? The G.O.P. convention is in MINNESOTA! No major downsides I can see.

Result: I think GOVERNOR PAWLENTY is the most likely choice. Second choice is Mitt Romney, after very loud teeth-gnashing from McCain. You’ll just be able to feel the love at the convention, won’t you? Third choice is Charlie Crist. Of course, now that I’ve gone on record, McCain will probably pick Carly Fiorina or someone else no one is discussing.